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After weeks of increasing numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 — a spike that included four virus-related deaths — Perry County has seen a significant drop in new cases over the past week, with only two reported since July 13.
On June 3, Perry County Health Department assistant director and epidemiologist Liz House said the county was seeing the beginning of a second wave of infection.
At that time, the county had 68 confirmed cases. By July 13, that number had nearly tripled, rising to 183, including a record peak of 81 concurrent active cases two week ago.
As of Monday’s report from the health department, Perry County now has 185 confirmed cases, with 46 active, and no hospitalizations.
Despite the decrease, House said it’s too early to tell if the spike is over.
“It is too soon to definitively tell if our county’s second peak has come to an end or if what we are seeing is just a temporary lull in activity,” House said.
Nevertheless, the decline did prompt the health department to lower the county’s COVID-19 alert level from the upper end of “moderately high” to “moderate” in Monday’s report.
“The Health Department decided to post a risk meter to provide a consistent visual to communicate the level of risk for COVID-19 spread based on the data and information we are analyzing and seeing in house,” House said. “It is standard practice in epidemiology to utilize the incubation period — the time between someone is exposed and can develop symptoms — in decision-making and data analysis. Since the incubation period of COVID-19 is 14 days, once a color is increased to a higher level of risk, we will not decrease that risk level for a minimum of 14 days until we have seen a steady decline in our numbers.”
House said the most recent change was prompted by a 14-day decrease in active cases, and the three-day rolling average of new cases, as well as data analyzed by the Centers for Disease Control and Precvention.
House said the decrease in number of cases can be attributed to members of the community “heeding recommendations put out by the health department and taking personal responsibility to help decrease the spread.”
“In order to decrease our risk level to low, we would have to see another 14-day decrease in addition to a decrease of new cases in surrounding counties,” House said.
Despite the good news, health officials remain cautious. On Tuesday, the state of o Missouri recorded its largest single-day increase in COVID-19 cases with 1,138.
“I would be remiss if I thought the worst was behind us,” said health department director Sylvia Forester. “It’s going to take a unified community approach in combination with contact tracing efforts by the Health Department to address what experts are foreseeing occurring this fall.”
Most of the questions on everyone’s mind revolve around the upcoming school year.
Forester said the health department has been in communication with school districts in the county as they make plans amid increasing pressure from both the federal and state levels to open fully and on time.
Forester said she and her staff have been serving as a “sounding board,” offering technical assistance and guidance to Perry County’s schools, which, according to Perry County School District communications director Kate Martin, have joined together to work out plans and protocols for the new year.
Martin told the Republic-Monitor on Monday that they plan to announce those combined plans in early August.
Forester said that opening schools could be done safely, but it will take a concerted effort form all county residents.
“Schools have the best opportunity for a safe reopening if we have little to zero community transmission,” Forester said. “If we have high numbers again like we saw at the beginning of the month, we are behind before we have even begun.”
From July 1-13, the number of confirmed cases in Perry County rose from 146 to 183, a span which included the highest number of concurrent active cases since the first postive case was reported in the county on March 22.
“It is going to take the community as a whole to take individual responsibility and to do as much as possible to limit extra outings to places where there are high risks of transmission — events where social distancing and mask wearing is not being followed — and to avoid travel where there is high community transmission,” Forester said.
