Have you ever heard someone say, “This winter reminds me of the winter of 1978,” or “The weather this fall is almost identical to what we experienced several years ago”? Believe it or not, looking at past weather patterns is an important part of developing long-range seasonal forecasts.
In meteorology, we call this the use of analog years, and it is one of the tools meteorologists use to understand what Mother Nature might have in store for the months ahead.
An analog year is a previous year when large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions were similar to those we are experiencing today. By examining those years, meteorologists can identify patterns that may provide clues about an upcoming season. Think of it as looking through Mother Nature’s history books. Each year tells a different story, but occasionally, we find several that begin in remarkably similar ways.
When developing a winter outlook for the region, I will examine previous years with comparable Pacific Ocean temperatures, jet stream patterns, and atmospheric conditions. I then look at what happened during those winters. Were temperatures warmer or colder than normal? Was precipitation above or below average? Did we experience significant snowstorms or extended periods of mild weather?
One of the most important factors in selecting analog years is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This climate pattern involves changes in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures that can influence weather patterns across North America.
For the upcoming winter of 2026–2027, the possibility of a major El Niño makes several historical winters particularly interesting. The winters of 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016 featured exceptionally strong El Niño events and provide valuable comparisons. However, despite similar ocean conditions, those winters produced different weather outcomes across the country.
That is because El Niño is only one piece of the forecasting puzzle. The position of the jet stream, availability of Arctic air, and timing of storm systems can dramatically influence our weather. Here in southeast Missouri, where we often find ourselves along the dividing line between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow, those differences are especially important.
Meteorologists also examine weather trends, including persistent temperature patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and ocean temperatures. However, a warm October doesn’t necessarily mean a warm winter, just as an early snowfall doesn’t guarantee a snowy season.
Another important consideration is our changing climate. The background temperatures of today are different from those experienced several decades ago. Therefore, historical comparisons must account for long-term climate trends rather than assuming an earlier winter will repeat itself.
Instead of relying on a single analog year, meteorologists often compare several years to identify common patterns. When multiple analog years suggest similar temperature or precipitation trends, and seasonal computer models support those findings, confidence in the outlook may increase.
As we approach winter, I will be watching how the developing El Niño interacts with atmospheric circulation patterns across North America. A stronger southern jet stream could bring additional storm opportunities to our region, but whether those storms produce rain, ice, or snow will depend on the availability of cold air.
The important thing to remember is that analog years are clues, not guarantees. Seasonal forecasting isn’t about predicting every snowstorm months in advance. It is about recognizing larger patterns and determining which weather outcomes are more likely.
I have always found this part of meteorology fascinating because it reminds us how much we can learn from the past. Weather observations collected decades ago continue to help us understand the atmosphere today.
Mother Nature occasionally repeats a familiar theme, but she rarely tells exactly the same story twice.
The past cannot tell us precisely what tomorrow’s weather will bring, but it can help us recognize the patterns that may shape our future.
Until next time, keep looking up, stay weather aware, and remember that sometimes the best way to understand the weather ahead is to study the weather we’ve already experienced.
