Boone County voters cast ballots Friday in Columbia during the state's "no-excuse absentee" early voting period. County Clerk Brianna Lennon said her office has averaged about 1,000 voters per day since early voting began on Tuesday. (Rudi Keller/Missouri Independent)Missouri Democrats confidently predict voter discontent will deliver victories in tight legislative races, but campaign finance reports show Republicans well provisioned for defense.
And Republicans are using that financial advantage to shape how voters see their candidates.
On Thursday, the House Republican Campaign Committee transferred $1.5 million to two political action committees that attack Democrats while promoting Republican candidates as independent-minded lawmakers willing to challenge their own party’s leadership.
It’s one example of how campaign money is being used not just to win elections, but to influence the messages voters hear in the final days before Nov. 3.
Reports for the third quarter were due last week for all candidate, ballot measure and special interest political action committees raising, spending or donating money to influence the election. Final pre-election federal reports were due Thursday; state candidates face a Monday deadline for their final reports.
Tracking by The Independent shows almost $60 million has been raised since the start of 2025 for Nov. 3 ballot measure campaigns. In candidate races, $24.9 million has been collected by nominees in the eight congressional districts — almost 90% by incumbents seeking re-election.
In the General Assembly, there are 17 state Senate races. The nominees and political action committees affiliated with their campaigns have raised $17 million.
In the Missouri House, where all 163 districts are on the ballot, there are 34 seats with no major party contest and another 90 that are almost certain to remain with the incumbent party. In 39 districts rated by The Independent as less than safe for the incumbent party, candidates and affiliated PACs have raised $5.2 million.
In the only statewide race, for auditor, incumbent Republican Scott Fitzpatrick is seeking his second term. He raised $536,286 since the start of 2025, had $484,097 on hand on Sept. 30 and spent only $7,553 since the primary on his re-election campaign.
A political action committee backing Fitzpatrick, Missourians for a Responsible Budget, has raised slightly more than his campaign and had about $30,000 more on hand on Sept. 30. The only broadcast ads in the race found by The Independent’s tracking are $63,000 by Fitzpatrick’s PAC in Springfield.
Quentin Wilson, the Democratic nominee, has raised just under $125,000, spent $10,506 since the primary and had $40,200 on hand on Sept. 30.
The Independent has been tracking the spending, the donors behind it and the government actions they pursue. Often, ads paid for by one interest group are entirely focused on unrelated issues to defeat candidates who would oppose their goals.
That happened in the August primary, when J&J Ventures of Effingham, Illinois, spent almost $100,000 through a PAC it established, Legio XIII, in the 16th District state Senate race. The ads did not mention that the targeted candidate would oppose legalizing video lottery terminals, which are central to J&J Ventures’ business.
With the election less than two weeks away and early votes being cast, this article will update readers on where big donations are coming from, where the money is being spent and how it is being used to deliver campaign messages.
Tori Schafer, an ACLU attorney and candidate for the Missouri House, speaks at a Stop the Ban campaign canvassing kick-off event on Aug. 29 in St. Louis County. (Photo by Anna Spoerre/Missouri Independent)
Ballot measures
In the November 2024 election, the top ballot measure campaigns combined to spend nearly $100 million. The committees working on this year’s ballot measures are unlikely to match that amount.
Through Thursday, they had combined to collect $59.6 million, including money spent on signature campaigns and legal battles before the ballot was finalized.
The most expensive ballot measure campaign is over Amendment 3, which would ban most abortions as well as enshrine a ban on gender-affirming medical care for minors in the state constitution. Opponents organized as Stop the Ban have raised almost $26 million and purchased $7.25 million of the $13.6 million in ballot measure broadcast advertising tracked by The Independent.
Supporters have split their efforts between two committees. Gov. Mike Kehoe is tied to the effort of Her Health, Her Future, a committee with First Lady Claudia Kehoe as treasurer. Two other leading Republicans, former Attorney General Andrew Bailey and U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, have established a second committee, Yes on Amendment 3, to promote the ban.
Her Health, Her Future has reported $6 million in contributions and paid for $1.2 million in broadcast ads. Yes on Amendment 3 has raised $1 million and spent $517,000 on broadcast ads.
The other two ballot measures with major campaigns have not faced significant opposition spending.
Respect Mo Voters reported raising $1.5 million for its campaign to put Amendment 6 on the ballot and another $400,000 since Sept. 30. The committee is focusing fall spending on get-out-the-vote efforts while a second committee, Yes on Amendment 6, has raised $5.5 million, almost exclusively from unions.
Yes on Amendment 6 has spent $3.2 million on broadcast ads.
MO Protect PAC, working against Amendment 6, has reported raising $40,000 during the fall campaign.
People Not Politicians, the committee that put Proposition A on the ballot, has no active opposition committee. After fighting for a year to get a vote on the gerrymandered redistricting plan passed in 2025, and after Republicans spent $3.1 million to obstruct the petition drive, Republicans have mounted no effort to persuade voters the map should stand.
People Not Politicians has raised nearly $11 million since it was formed, including $2.9 million in large donations since Sept. 30, and purchased $1.4 million in broadcast ads.
Republican 6th District nominee Chris Stigall speaks during a primary campaign stop at Koch’s General Store in Macon. Stigall has not campaigned extensively since winning the primary in the district considered safe for the GOP. (Annelise Hanshaw/Missouri Independent)
Congress
The best evidence that Republicans are increasingly worried about the result in Missouri’s 2nd District may be the $628,000 spent this week by the Congressional Leadership Fund on television ads in the St. Louis market.
In the race between incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner and Democratic challenger Fred Wellman, Wagner has the advantage of both name recognition and accumulated cash. The Independent’s ad tracking shows Wagner has spent $1.4 million on broadcast ads compared to $357,00 for Wellman.
In recent days, Wellman has been promoting polls showing him even with or slightly ahead of Wagner in the district that has been held by Republicans since 1992.
Missouri’s other seven districts are considered safe for the incumbent party, with Republicans holding five of the seats and Democrats two. Nominees of incumbent parties have raised almost 90% of the funds for this year’s congressional elections.
State Rep. Keri Ingle and House Speaker Jon Patterson are running in the Missouri Senate’s 8th District. The race is one of two eyed statewide for its potential to turn a historically Republican seat blue. (Photos provided by candidates’ campaigns)
State Senate
More money has been spent on broadcast ads in Missouri’s three competitive state Senate races than in all eight congressional races..
The most expensive race is the 8th District in suburban Jackson County, a GOP seat being sought by Republican House Speaker Jon Patterson and Democratic state Rep. Keri Ingle. More than $2.2 million has been spent on broadcast ads.
Patterson has raised $800,000 for his campaign and $1.5 million for Missouri Alliance PAC. Ingle has raised $512,000 for her campaign and $316,000 for KERI PAC.
Patterson has spent $552,000 on broadcast ads while Ingle has spent $316,000.
Missouri Alliance has spent $609,000 on broadcast ads while the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee has purchased $818,000 worth of ads to back Ingle’s campaign.
In Springfield, the spending isn’t just from candidates, their PACs and party committees.
Legio XIII PAC, set up by slot machine vendor J&J Ventures as it pursues video lottery legalization, has purchased $65,000 worth of radio ads opposing the 30th District Democratic nominee, state Rep. Betsy Fogle. The company has given the PAC $575,000 since Sept. 30.
Fogle and state Rep. Melanie Stinnett are contesting a seat that hasn’t elected a Democrat in 80 years.
Fogle and Stinnett’s full reports show almost identical fundraising numbers – about $1.4 million each between their campaign committees and PACs — but Fogle’s Forward PAC has taken in $220,000 in large donations since Sept. 30 while Stinnett’s Heart of SGF PAC has received $15,000.
The unexpectedly competitive state Senate race this cycle is the 34th District, in northwest Missouri. Republicans have purchased almost $325,000 in broadcast ads to defend the seat that covers Platte and a portion of Buchanan County.
Missouri House
There are 16 districts targeted by one or both of the two major parties in the St. Louis, Kansas City and Springfield regions. Republicans are defending 14 of the targeted districts while Democrats held the other two after the 2024 election.
Republicans won 111 seats in 2024. Democrats want to win at least 55 for the first time since 2010, when they lost 17 seats.
The candidates in those races have raised $892,000 since the primary, 58% of all money raised in the 39 districts rated less than safe for the incumbent party by The Independent. Candidates in those districts reported $1.6 million on hand for the final month of the campaign, more than half the total for all 39 districts.
Tracey Steele, right, speaks with Sonya Mosier while campaigning Oct. 10 in the Thousand Oaks neighborhood for the 12th District Missouri House in southern Platte County. (Rudi Keller/Missouri Independent)
Democratic candidates, in general, lagged behind their Republican opponents in fundraising during the period and had about half as much cash on hand as their Republican opponents — $582,000 compared to $1 million.
Of the 10 districts that could go to either party but are not targeted in this year’s cycle, mainly because of strong incumbents, seven are held by Democrats and three are in Republican hands. In those districts, Democratic nominees have an edge in total fundraising but Republicans held more cash on Sept. 30.
Another 13 districts that are not rated safe have a strong lean toward one party and include one Democratic district and 12 GOP-held seats.
The backstop for Republicans in Missouri House races is the political action committee dedicated to maintaining their majority. The House Republican Campaign Committee accumulated $3 million from incumbents and lobbying interests as of Sept. 30. The committee has reported $661,000 in donations greater than $5,000 since that date.
Its counterpart, the House Democratic Action Fund, had $348,000 in the bank on Sept. 30 and has not reported a single large donation since.
The money will fuel the final push to election day. Mailboxes will fill with flyers urging action on issues and candidates while the airwaves and online platforms overflow with video and text messages.
And in areas where the Republican name is tarnished, Republicans are making sure it isn’t on those mailbox ads. On Thursday, the House Republican Campaign Committee donated $750,000 each to Missourians for Justice and Citizens for Better Government, PACs set up this year with the same treasurer as the HRCC deputy treasurer.
The PACs attack Democrats and promote Republican candidates as mavericks who question GOP leadership.
Missouri Independent 100
The 100 PACs identified by The Missouri Independent as the most active donors and spenders representing interest groups made contributions to other committees their largest expense in the third quarter of the year.
While the PACs took in $4.8 million, they spent $1.1 million and contributed $5.7 million to other committees.
The PACs collectively have raised $46.3 million since the start of 2025, spent $11.1 million and contributed $29 million. On Sept. 30, they were holding $17.5 million.
Gambling interests, through PACs in the Missouri Independent 100 and direct company contributions, were the leading donors early in the election cycle, providing $1 out of every $8 raised by legislative candidates through the end of March.
Since then, the total from gambling interests has increased from $4.7 million to almost $8 million.
The goal for J&J Ventures, which has donated almost $3 million to Missouri candidates and PACs, is to legalize video lottery terminals as unlicensed slot machine games are driven out of retail locations. Opposition comes from casinos, which have donated $1.6 million both directly and through the Missouri Gaming Association PAC.
The Missouri State Medical Association, which donated $1.5 million split between two new PACs, has spent about $250,000, mainly to support Republicans in the two most competitive state Senate races.
A PAC helping Democrats at the grassroots level, Will of the People Coalition, has raised almost $3 million this year.
Big donors
Three of the five largest sources of campaign cash in Missouri this year are donors to the Stop the Ban committee opposing Amendment 3. They are The Fairness Project, which has contributed $8 million, the ACLU and the ACLU Foundation, which has given $2.8 million and Lynn Schusterman of Oklahoma, who gave $3 million.
The other two donors are mainly helping Republican candidates and causes.
St. Louis businessman Michael Rayner, who is part of the family that owns Cargill, has contributed $3.1 million to MCR PAC, which in turn donates to candidates and other PACs.
Rex Sinquefield, the GOP’s most prolific donor of the past 20 years, has given $2.3 million, much of it under his own name and some to PACs that then donate to other committees.
Sinquefield, who has ardently pushed for eliminating the state income tax, has contributed almost $79 million since he began political giving in 2006.
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