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Perry County has seen a rash of new cases of COVID-19 in recent days, with six cases reported Saturday and another on Tuesday, but according to county health officials, it’s too soon to tell just what exactly that means.
“It’s hard to say yet,” said Perry County Health Department director Sylvia Forester. “We’re going to have to see what happens during the next few days.”
Two weeks ago, in response to falling numbers among new and active cases, lower the county’s COVID-19 alert level to “moderate” after weeks of being rated “moderately high.” Forester said Tuesday that the needle isn’t likely to drop any further, at least for some time, based on continuing increases in positive cases in the counties surrounding Perry, including Randolph County, Ill., which was recently placed at a “warning level” by the Illinois Department of Public Health.
Moving the needle from “moderate” to “low” would require Perry County to see two weeks of “exponential reduction” in the number of cases, along with similar reductions in the surrounding counties.
Last week, Forester said she “wouldn’t feel comfortable” reducing the county’s risk category, a feeling she carried over to this week and one shared by PCHD epidemiologist and assistant director Liz House.
“It is standard practice in epidemiology to utilize the incubation period in decision-making and data analysis,” House said. “Since the incubation period of COVID-19 is 14 days, once a color is increased to a higher level of risk, we will not decrease that risk level for a minimum of 14 days until we have seen a steady decline in our numbers.
“The most recent change was prompted by a 14 day decrease in active cases, the three-day rolling average of new cases, as well as data analyzed by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] that is suggested be used in making these types of decisions.”
According to data provided by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, the five Missouri counties sharing a border with Perry County have seen a combined increase of xx confirmed cases in the past two weeks, with Cape Girardeau County — which also has the largest population in the region — leading the way with 86, followed by St. Francois with 80, Ste. Genevieve had 12, Bollinger 7, and Madison with 3. During that same period, Perry County had 22.
The recent increase in Perry County’s numbers — which works out to an average of approximately 1.6 per day — might look to some as the beginning of another spike, but House said Tuesday that things may not be as bad as they appear, because the recent increases may not be enough to damage the recent progress made in containing the virus.
The health department reported six new confirmed cases on Saturday and another on Tuesday, bringing the number of confirmed cases to 206. This comes on the heels of six other additional cases that were reported on July 30.
Of those, 23 were reported as active cases on Tuesday, with 185 recoveries and four deaths related to the virus. As of Monday, two individuals were being treated in hospitals for the disease.
In addition to those 13 confirmed cases, four probable cases have been reported in past week, raising the total number of probable cases to six and the total number of reported cases in Perry County to 212.
According to the Perry County Health Department, the CDC has three possible definitions for a probable case:
Meets clinical criteria and epidemiological evidence with no positive lab results;
The detection of positive antibodies in a clinical specimen from a person who meets clinical criteria or epidemiological evidence;
Meets vital records criteria with no positive lab test.
Clinical criteria refers to persons exhibiting symptoms consistent with the disease. Epidemiological evidence includes being identified as a close contact of a positive case, travel to or residence in an area with sustained, ongoing community transmission, or being identified as a member of a risk cohort as defined by public health authorities. Vital records criteria consists of a death certificate that lists COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2, the clinical name for the disease, as a cause of death or a significant factor contributing to death.
House said one of the reasons the number of probable cases is rising is that some people decline to get tested.
As of Wednesday morning, Missouri had 54,080 confirmed cases and 1,266 deaths reported. In the previous 24 hours, the state saw an increase of 1,193 cases and 11 deaths.
“Numbers are going to depend on if citizens, businesses, and organizations take the responsibility to practice public health measures and do their part,” Forester said. “Our department strongly recommends the use of face masks, particularly when social distancing cannot be maintained.”
